Contagion game status unavailable
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Center for Pacific Basin Studies. Cash and How We Use It. Federal Reserve Bank of Contagion game status unavailable Francisco. The latest in economic research. Fixing the exchange rate constrains monetary policy. Along with unfettered cross-border capital flows, the trilemma implies that arbitrage, not the central bank, determines how interest rates fluctuate. The annals of international finance thus provide quasi-natural experiments with which to measure how macroeconomic outcomes respond to policy rates.
Using a novel control function approach we evaluate the robustness of our findings to possible spillovers via alternative channels. Our results prove to be robust, contagion game status unavailable. We find naked massage the effects of monetary policy are much larger than previously estimated, and that these effects are state-dependent.
The asain massage polors in kankakee area analysis is based on predictive models estimated using machine learning techniques from Kanjoya. We analyze four alternative news sentiment indexes. We find that contagion game status unavailable news sentiment indexes correlate strongly with contemporaneous business cycle indicators.
We also find that innovations to news sentiment predict future economic activity. For some of these economic outcomes, there is evidence that contagion game status unavailable news sentiment measures have significant predictive power even contagion game status unavailable conditioning on these survey-based measures. The linkages persist after controlling for parental income.
The linkages are stronger in cities with lower intergenerational income mobility, implying that common factors might drive both. Existing measures of state-level educational policy have limited effects on the strength of the linkages. Evidence from a sample of siblings suggests that the linkages might be largely due to family fixed effects. Exchange rate shocks have mixed effects on economic activity in both theory and empirical VAR models.
In this paper, we extend the empirical literature by considering the implications of a positive shock to the U. We find that a dollar appreciation shock reduces economic activity and inflation not only for the U. This result, which is robust to a number of alternative specifications, suggests that in spite of their disparate economic structures and policy regimes, the dollar appreciation shock affects the Asian economies primarily through its impact on U.
While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible contagion game status unavailable rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks.
We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange rates, the adjustment of real exchange rates toward their long-run equilibrium surprisingly became faster.
These findings support claims that flexible exchange rates are not necessary to promote long-run international relative price adjustment. Previous research provides rationales for and evidence of a link between house price appreciation and mortgage choice, with higher appreciation associated with higher take-up rates for adjustable-rate mortgages relative to fixed-rate mortgages.
Research also finds mortgage interest rates and their underlying components to be important determinants of mortgage financing choices. In this paper we extend the earlier research and show that house price appreciation can have important interactive effects with those other determinants of mortgage financing choices. We find that higher house price appreciation dampened the estimated sensitivity of take-up rates among mortgage financing options to the underlying mortgage pricing components.
The results, which are especially robust for fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages that are fully amortized, were not driven solely by observations in markets with especially high rates of house price appreciation. Moreover, after taking into account the interactive effects with mortgage pricing components, house price appreciation is estimated to have had relatively little additional effect on take-up rates among mortgage financing options.
The effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union EMU and European Union EU on trade are separately estimated using an empirical gravity model. Employing a panel approach with both time-varying country and dyadic fixed effects on a large span of data across both countries and timeit is found that EMU and EU each significantly boosted exports.
Newer members have experienced even higher trade as a result of joining the EU, but more time is necessary to see the effects of their joining EMU. Stress testing has become an important component of macroprudential regulation yet its goals and implementation are still being debated, reflecting the difficulty of designing such frameworks in the context of enormous model uncertainty.
We illustrate methods for responding to possible misspecifications in models used for assessing bank vulnerabilities. Meta-analysis of empirical findings suggests that there is solid consensus with respect to wages: in both developing and developed countries FDI leads to higher wages in target firms and industries. Majority of the papers also find positive productivity spillovers as well as increase in skill premium as a result of FDI, hire a prostitute uk in developing economies.
We analyze all the findings together to address possible mechanisms of FDI effects on labor in target firms, in competing firms, and in vertically related firms. We present a stylized model that is consistent with many empirical regularities found in meta-analysis of empirical literature. We introduce a simple representation of endogenous search effort into the standard matching function with job-seeker heterogeneity.
Using the estimated augmented matching function, we study the sources of changes in the average employment transition rate. In the standard matching function, contagion game status unavailable, the contribution of matching efficiency is decreasing in the matching function elasticity. The data on employment transition rates provide evidence for endogenous search effort but do not separately identify cyclicality of search effort and matching elasticity.
Leverage is correlated contagion game status unavailable central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well as tighter real-real and real-financial correlations. International real and financial cycles also cohere more strongly. The new stylized facts that we discover should prove fertile ground for the development of a new generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors.
The effects of weather on the economy, outside of agriculture, have been surprisingly understudied. The estimates from this model provide contagion game status unavailable in-depth understanding of exactly how weather affects the economy at the local level. Temperature by seasonprecipitation, snowfall, and the frequency of very hot and very cold days within a month are found to have significant effects on local employment growth.
The effects are generally transitory, with some key exceptions, and vary substantially across industries and regions. The fitted county DPD model then is used to generate estimates of the total weather effect on national employment growth.
I evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample explanatory power of these estimates, compared with estimates from a national time-series model. While the estimated weather effects from the national time-series model yield a better in-sample fit, the estimated effects from the nationally-aggregated county DPD model provide a better out-of-sample fit.
Furthermore, the price of credit is higher and access to credit is harder for low-income households in high-inequality versus low-inequality regions.
Lower quantities combined with higher prices suggest that the debt accumulation pattern by household income across areas with different inequality is a result of credit supply rather than credit demand. We propose a lending model to illustrate the mechanism. Using data from the Michigan Survey, we find a strong relationship between expectations concerning national output growth and future state economic activity. This linkage suggests that sentiment influences aggregate demand.
This relationship is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. However, national sentiment is also positively related to past state economic activity. We therefore turn to instrumental variables, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and confirms the relationship between sentiment and future state economic activity.
What is the sustainable pace of GDP growth in the United States? The main drivers of slow growth are educational attainment and demographics. First, contagion game status unavailable, rising educational attainment will add less to productivity growth than it did historically. Second, because of the aging and retirements of baby boomers, employment will rise more slowly than population which, in turn, contagion game status unavailable, is projected to rise slowly relative to history.
I assess this flattening over time in higher education wage premiums with reference to two related explanations for changing U. Analyses of wage and employment data from the U. Current Brothels in cleveland Survey suggest that both factors have contributed to the flattening of higher education wage premiums.
We show that the stock market may fail to aggregate information even if it appears to be efficient, and that the resulting decrease in the information content of prices may drastically reduce welfare. We solve a macroeconomic model in which information about fundamentals is dispersed and households make small, correlated errors when forming expectations about future productivity. As information aggregates in the market, these errors amplify and crowd out the information content contagion game status unavailable stock prices.
When prices reflect less information, contagion game status unavailable, the conditional variance of stock returns rises, causing an increase in uncertainty and costly distortions in consumption, contagion game status unavailable, capital accumulation, and labor supply.
Currency manipulations by large countries also have external effects on foreign interest contagion game status unavailable and capital accumulation. The size of this effect increases with the size of the target economy, offering a potential explanation why the vast majority of currency stabilizations in the data are to the U. A large economy such as China stabilizing its exchange rate relative to a larger economy such as the U.
Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term, contagion game status unavailable.
In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, contagion game status unavailable, should employment rates of low-skilled workers make a cyclical rebound towards pre-recession levels. The main uncertainties in the longer run are whether the secular decline in employment of low-skilled workers continues and whether the Great Recession pickup in educational attainment represents the start of a new boom or is simply a transitory reaction to a poor economy.
We use panel data on individual applications to job openings on a job search website to study search intensity and search duration. Our data allow us to control for the composition of job seekers and changes in the number of available job openings over the duration of search. The latter finding contradicts the implications of standard labor search models. We argue that these models fail to capture an income effect in search eastern europe whores that causes job seekers with the lowest returns to search to exert the highest effort.
We present evidence in support of this idea. Two financial frictions—segmentation of the market for central bank reserves and imperfect asset substitutability—give rise to two distinct portfolio effects. One derives from the reduced supply of the purchased assets. The results imply that central bank reserve expansions can affect long-term bond prices even in the absence of long-term bond purchases.
Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity contagion game status unavailable, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies—Canada, the Euro Area, contagion game status unavailable, and the United Kingdom.
These country-by-country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest. In the model, contagion game status unavailable, state-owned enterprises SOEs have lower average productivity than private firms, contagion game status unavailable, but they have superior access to bank loans because of government guarantees.
Commercial banks are subject to reserve requirement regulations but shadow banks are not. Our framework implies a tradeoff for reserve requirement policy: Increasing the required reserve ratio acts as a tax on SOE activity and reallocates resources to private firms, raising aggregate productivity.
This reallocation is supported by empirical evidence. However, raising reserve requirements also increases the incidence of costly SOE failures.
Under our calibration, reserve requirement policy erotic hookers be complementary to interest rate policy for stabilizing macro fluctuations and improving welfare.
An estimated model with labor search frictions and endogenous variations in search intensity and recruiting intensity does well in explaining the slow job recovery after the Contagion game status unavailable Recession.
The model features a sunk cost of vacancy creation, under which firms rely on adjusting both the number of vacancies and recruiting intensity to respond to aggregate shocks. This stands in contrast to the textbook model with free entry, which implies constant recruiting intensity. Our estimation suggests that fluctuations in search and recruiting intensity help substantially bridge the gap between the actual and model-predicted job filling and finding rates.
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of productivity growth around the world. For the United States and Europe, we highlight that this slow pace began prior to the Great Recession. The timing thus suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis.
That burst ran its course prior to the Great Recession. We provide VAR and panel-data evidence that changes pornhub massage real interest rates have influenced productivity dynamics in this period. In particular, the sharp decline in real interest rates that took place in Italy and Spain seem to have triggered unfavorable resource reallocations that were large enough to reduce the level of total factor productivity, consistent with recent theories and firm-level evidence.
The Zero Lower Bound ZLB on interest rates is often regarded as an important constraint on monetary policy. Before the ZLB period, communication affects both short and long-dated yields. In contrast, during the ZLB period, the reaction of yields to communication is concentrated in longer-dated yields.
Our findings support the view that the ZLB did not put such a child abuse prostitution constraint on monetary policy, as the Fed retained some ability to affect long-term yields through communication.
The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity—or expectations thereof—puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of capital.
On the other hand, the decline in population growth eventually leads to a higher dependency ratio the fraction of retirees to workers. Because retirees save less than workers, this compositional effect laws against prostitution in america the aggregate savings rate and pushes real rates up.
Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Other policies can offset the negative effects of the demographic transition on real rates with different degrees of success. The relative importance of these two margins varies significantly over the business cycle. When labor markets are tight, continuously full-time employed workers drive wage growth.
During labor market downturns, the procyclicality craigslist prostitution entrapment the intensive margin is largely offset by net exits out of full-time employment among workers with lower earnings.
This leads aggregate real wages to be largely acyclical. Most of the extensive margin effect works through the part-time employment margin. Notably, the unemployment margin accounts for little of the variation or cyclicality of median weekly earnings growth.
We find little evidence that the slowdown arises from growing mismeasurement of the gains from innovation in information-technology IT -related goods and services. Hence, our adjustments make the slowdown in labor productivity worse.
The effect on TFP is contagion game status unavailable muted. Second, many of the tremendous consumer benefits from smartphones, Google searches, contagion game status unavailable Facebook are, conceptually, non-market: Consumers are more productive in using their nonmarket time to produce services they value.
These benefits raise consumer well-being but do not imply that market-sector production functions are shifting out more rapidly than measured. Moreover, estimated gains in non-market production are too small to compensate for the loss in overall well-being from slower market-sector productivity growth.
In addition to IT, other measurement issues contagion game status unavailable can quantify such as increasing globalization and fracking are also quantitatively small relative to the slowdown. In the context of recent housing busts in the United States and other countries, many observers have highlighted the role of credit and speculation in fueling unsustainable booms that lead to crises. Motivated by these observations, we develop a model of credit-fuelled bubbles in which lenders accept risky assets as collateral.
Booming prices allow lenders to extend more credit, in turn allowing investors to bid prices even higher. Eager to profit from the boom for as long as possible, asymmetrically informed investors fuel and ride bubbles, buying overvalued assets in hopes of reselling at a profit to a greater fool.
Lucky investors sell the bubbly asset at peak prices to unlucky ones, who buy in hopes that the bubble will grow at least a bit longer. In the end, unlucky investors suffer losses, default on their loans, and lose their collateral to lenders. In our model, tighter monetary and credit policies can reduce or even eliminate bubbles.
We study the transmission of financial sector shocks across borders through international bank connections. We estimate the effect of direct first-degree and indirect second-degree exposures to countries experiencing systemic banking crises on bank profitability and loan supply.
Indirect exposures to crisis countries enhance this effect, while indirect exposures to non-crisis countries mitigate it. Our results, based on a large global sample, support the notion that interconnected financial systems facilitate shock transmission. We build a flexible model with search frictions in three markets: credit, labor, and goods markets. We then apply this model called CLG to three different economies: a flexible, finance-driven economy the UKan economy with wage moderation Germanyand an economy with structural rigidities Spain.
In the goods market, adverse supply shocks are amplified through their propagation to the demand side, as they also imply income losses for consumers. Finally, the speed of matching in the goods market and the credit market accounts for a small fraction of unemployment: Most of contagion game status unavailable variation in unemployment comes from the contagion game status unavailable of matching in the labor market, contagion game status unavailable.
We investigate the link between stochastic properties of exchange rates and differences in capital-output ratios across industrialized countries. To this end, we endogenize capital accumulation within a standard model of exchange rate determination with nontraded goods. The model predicts that currencies of countries that are more systemic for the world economy countries that face particularly volatile shocks or account for a large share of world GDP appreciate when the price of traded goods in world markets is high.
As a consequence, more systemic countries face a lower cost of capital and accumulate more capital per worker. In this sense, the stochastic properties of exchange rates map to fundamentals in the way predicted by the model. We extend the basic representative-household Elderly women employed by men in the middle ages to procure prostitutes Keynesian [NK] model of the monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interest rate available to savers contagion game status unavailable borrowers, that can vary for either exogenous or endogenous reasons.
We find that the mere existence of a positive average spread makes little quantitative difference for the predicted effects of particular policies. Variation in spreads over time is of greater significance, with consequences both for the equilibrium relation between the policy rate and aggregate expenditure and for the relation between real activity and inflation. Nonetheless, we find that the target criterion—a linear relation that should be maintained between the inflation rate and changes in the output gap—that characterizes optimal policy in the basic NK model continues to provide a good contagion game status unavailable to optimal policy, even in the presence of variations in credit spreads.
The results show that the combination of cyclical variation and the influence of market-level factors can explain virtually all of the variation in the aggregate incidence of involuntary part-time employment since the Great Recession. We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy surprises on the value of the dollar using high-frequency intraday data and contrast them with the effects of conventional policy tools.
Identifying monetary policy surprises from changes in interest rate future prices in narrow windows around policy announcements, we find that monetary policy surprises since the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate to the effective lower bound have had larger effects on the value of the dollar.
We estimate the upper-level elasticity of substitution between goods and services of a nested aggregate CES preference specification.
We show how this elasticity can be derived from the long-run response of the relative price of a good to a change in its VAT rate. Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence regarding the natural rate of interest in the United States using the Laubach-Williams model. Since the start of the Great Recession, contagion game status unavailable, the estimated natural rate of interest fell sharply and shows no sign of recovering.
These results are robust to alternative model specifications. If the natural rate remains low, future episodes of hitting the zero lower bound are likely to be frequent and long-lasting. In addition, uncertainty about the natural rate argues for policy approaches that are more robust to mismeasurement of natural rates. A consensus has recently emerged that variables beyond the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve can help predict bond returns. This paper shows that the statistical tests underlying this evidence are subject to serious small-sample distortions.
Only the level and the slope of the yield curve are robust predictors of bond returns. We study this question for a large portfolio of home equity lines of credit. We conduct model comparisons of loan-level default probability models, county-level models, aggregate portfolio-level models, and hybrid approaches based on portfolio segments such as debt-to-income DTI ratios, loan-to-value LTV ratios, and FICO risk scores. For each of these aggregation levels we choose the model that fits the data best in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample performance.
We then compare winning models across all approaches. We document two main results. First, all the models considered here are capable of fitting our data when given the benefit of using the whole sample period for estimation. Second, in out-of-sample exercises, loan-level models have large forecast errors and underpredict default probability.
Average out-of-sample performance is best for portfolio and county-level models. However, contagion game status unavailable, for portfolio level, small perturbations in model specification may result in large forecast errors, while county-level models tend to be very robust, contagion game status unavailable. We conclude that aggregation level is an important factor to be considered in the stress-testing model design.
In recent years, stress testing has become an important component of financial and macro-prudential regulation. Despite the general consensus that such testing has been useful in many dimensions, the techniques of stress testing are still being honed and debated. This paper contributes to this debate in proposing the use of robust forecasting analysis to identify and construct adverse scenarios that are naturally interpretable as stress tests.
This offers regulators a method of identifying vulnerabilities, even while acknowledging that their models are misspecified in possibly unknown ways, contagion game status unavailable. We note, however, contagion game status unavailable, that the worst case so constructed features undesirable properties for our purpose in that it distorts moments that we would prefer were left undistorted.
In response, contagion game status unavailable, we formulate a contagion game status unavailable horizon robust forecasting problem in which the worst case distribution is required to respect certain moment conditions. In this framework, we are able to allow for rich nonlinearities in the benchmark process and more general loss functions than in the L-Q setup, thereby bringing our approach closer to applied use.
We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample uses four indicators: electricity, rail freight, an index of raw materials supply, and retail sales.
Adding GDP to this group only modestly improves in-sample performance. Moreover, out of sample, a single activity factor without GDP proves the most reliable measure of economic activity. In this paper, we use a variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which includes the European Economic and Monetary Union EMU. We have three findings. First, our assumption of symmetry between the effects of entering and leaving a currency union seems reasonable in the data but is uninteresting.
Second, EMU typically has a smaller trade effect than other currency unions; it has a mildly stimulating effect at best. Third and most importantly, estimates of the currency union effect on trade are sensitive to the exact econometric methodology; the lack of consistent and robust evidence undermines confidence in our ability to illicitencounters review estimate the effect of currency union on trade.
What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? History shows that not all bubbles are alike. Some have enormous costs for the economy, while others blow over. We porno masaj that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit.
When fueled by credit booms, asset price bubbles increase financial crisis risks; upon collapse they tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon. Domestic bond markets allow governments to inflate away their debt obligations, but also create a potential anti-inflationary force of bond holders.
We develop a simple model where bond issuance may lead to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate. This effect is insensitive to a variety of estimation strategies and methods to account for potential endogeneity. Although industrialized nations have long provided public protection to working-age individuals with disabilities, the form has changed over time.
The impetus for change has been multifaceted: rapid growth in program costs; greater awareness that people with impairments are able and willing to work; and increased recognition that protecting the economic security of people with disabilities might best be done by keeping them in the labor market.
We describe the evolution of disability programs in four countries: Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States. We show how growth in the receipt of publicly provided disability benefits has fluctuated over time and discuss how policy choices played a role. Based on our descriptive comparative analysis we summarize shared experiences that have the potential to benefit policymakers in all countries.
We focus on cardiologists treating patients with a first time heart attack treated in the emergency room. Physician concentration has a small, but statistically significant effect on service utilization. Cardiologists in more concentrated markets perform more intensive procedures, particularly, diagnostic procedures—services in which the procedure choice is more discretionary.
Higher concentration also leads to fewer readmissions, implying potential health benefits. These contagion game status unavailable are potentially important for antitrust analysis and suggest that changes in organizational structure in a market, such as a merger of physician groups, not only influences the negotiated prices of services, but also service provision.
We quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientist to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individual and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that state taxes matter. This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly-traded, long-maturity, domestic-currency bond market.
Bond holders are escort girl in la to capital losses through inflation and therefore represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether their influence is apparent both theoretically and empirically. We develop a simple theoretical model with heterogeneous agents where the issuance of such bonds leads to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate.
We then check this prediction empirically using a panel of data, examining inflation before and after the introduction of a domestic bond market. Inflation-targeting countries with a bond market experience inflation approximately three to four percentage points lower than those without one. This effect is economically and statistically significant; it is contagion game status unavailable insensitive to a variety of estimation strategies, including using political and fiscal variables suggested by theory to account for the potential endogeneity of domestic bond issuance.
Notably, we do not find a similar effect for short-term or foreign-currency bonds. We identify the effects of the reform using variation in drug coverage across counties before the reform was implemented. Studying mortality rates immediately before and after the reform, we find that cardiovascular-related mortality drops significantly in those counties most affected by Part D. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability.
Conditional on the observed paths for U. We find that the model with moving average forecast rules and long-term mortgage debt does best in plausibly matching the patterns observed in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shifting lending standards as measured by a loan-to-equity limit were an important driver of the episode while movements in the mortgage interest rate were not. All models deliver rapid consumption growth during the boom, negative consumption growth during the Great Recession, and sluggish consumption growth during the recovery when households are deleveraging.
Most existing macro-finance term structure models MTSMs appear incompatible with regression evidence of unspanned macro risk, contagion game status unavailable.
However, our empirical analysis supports the previous spanned models. Using simulations to investigate the spanning implications of MTSMs, we show that a canonical spanned model is consistent with the regression evidence; thus, contagion game status unavailable, we resolve the spanning puzzle, contagion game status unavailable. In addition, direct likelihood-ratio tests find that the knife-edge restrictions of unspanned models are rejected with high statistical significance, though these restrictions have only small effects on cross-sectional fit and estimated term premia.
Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, contagion game status unavailable, house price booms, and financial instability? We exploit contagion game status unavailable implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions.
We use novel instrumental variable local projection methods to demonstrate that loose monetary conditions lead to booms in real estate lending and house prices bubbles; these, in turn, materially heighten the risk of financial crises.
Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era. We examine a model of consumer learning and contagion game status unavailable signaling where price and quality are optimally chosen by a monopolist. Through numerical solution and simulation of the model we find that price signaling causes the firm to raise its prices, lower its quality, and dampen the degree to which it passes on cost shocks to price.
We identify two mechanisms through which signaling affects pass-through. The first is static: holding quality fixed, price signaling increases the curvature of demand relative to the case where quality is known, which ultimately acts to dampen how prices respond to changes in contagion game status unavailable. The second is dynamic: a firm that engages in signaling recognizes that changing prices today affects consumer beliefs about the relationship between prices and quality in the future.
We also find that signaling can lead to asymmetric pass-through. If the cost of adjusting quality is sufficiently high, then cost increases pass through to a greater extent than cost decreases. We develop a two-sector search-matching model of the labor market with imperfect mobility of workers, augmented to incorporate a housing market and a frictional goods market. Homeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities.
A financial innovation that raises the acceptability of homes as collateral raises house prices and reduces unemployment. The international transmission of shocks in the global financial system has always been an important issue for policy makers. Different types of foreign shocks have different effects and policy implications. In this paper, we examine the effects of the recent U. We find global banks using the foreign branches in Hong Kong as a funding source during the liquidity crunch in home country, suggesting that global banks manage their liquidity risk globally.
After the central bank at home country introduced liquidity facility to relieve funding pressure, the effect disappeared. We also find strong evidence that foreign branches originated from crisis countries lend significantly less in Hong Kong relative to their controls, suggesting the presence of the lending channel in the transmission of shocks from the home country to the host country. The renewal of interest in macroeconomic theories of search frictions in the goods contagion game status unavailable requires a deeper understanding of the cyclical properties of the intensive margins in this market.
We review the theoretical mechanisms that promote either procyclical or countercyclical movements in time spent searching for consumer goods and services, and then use the American Time Use Survey to measure shopping contagion game status unavailable through the Great Recession. Cross-state regressions point towards a procyclicality of consumer search in the goods market.
At the individual level, time allocated to different shopping activities is increasing in individual and household income. Overall, this body of evidence supports procyclical consumer search effort in the goods market and a conclusion that price comparisons cannot be a driver of business cycles.
Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy. We introduce boundedly-rational expectations into a standard asset-pricing model of the exchange rate, where cross-country interest contagion game status unavailable differentials are governed by Contagion game status unavailable rules.
Agents augment a lagged-information random walk forecast with a term that captures news about Taylor-rule fundamentals. The coefficient on fundamental news is pinned down using the moments of observable data such that the resulting forecast errors are close to white noise. The model generates volatility and persistence that is remarkably similar to that observed in monthly exchange rate data for Canada, Japan, contagion game status unavailable, and the U.
Regressions performed on model-generated data can deliver the well-documented forward premium anomaly. Using quarterly data for the U. Moreover, the proportion of total hires that involves a career change for the worker also drops in recessions.
Together with a simultaneous drop in overall turnover, this implies that the number of career changes declines during recessions. These results indicate contagion game status unavailable recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation, contagion game status unavailable.
We back this interpretation up with evidence on who changes careers, which industries and occupations they come from and go to, and at which wage gains, contagion game status unavailable. We show that on-balance sheet syndicated loan exposures, which account for almost one third of total cross-border loan exposures, increased during the global financial crisis due to large drawdowns on credit lines extended before the crisis.
Our empirical analysis of the drivers of cross-border loan exposures in a large bilateral dataset leads to three main results. First, banks with lower levels of capital favor syndicated over other kinds of cross-border loans. Second, borrower country characteristics such as level of development, economic size, and capital account openness, are less important in driving syndicated than non-syndicated loan activity, suggesting a diversification motive for syndication.
Third, information asymmetries between lender and borrower countries became more binding for both types of cross-border lending activity during the recent crisis. Firms in countries outside global financial centers have traditionally found it difficult to place bonds in international markets in their own currencies.
This trend appears to have accelerated notably after the global financial crisis. We present a model that illustrates how the global financial crisis could have had a persistent impact on home currency bond issuance. The model shows that firms that issue for the first time in their home currencies during disruptive episodes, such as the crisis, find their relative costs of issuance in home currencies remain lower after conditions return to normal, partly due to the increased depth of the home currency debt market.
Empirically, we show that increases in home currency foreign bond issuance occurred predominantly in advanced economies with good fundamentals and especially in the aftermath of the crisis. Consistent with the predictions of the model, financial firms—which are more homogeneous than their non-financial counterparts—in countries with stable inflation and low government debt increased home currency issuance by more. Our results point to the importance of both global financial market conditions and domestic economic policies in the share of home currency issuance.
We argue that the issuance of central bank reserves per se can matter for the effect of central bank large-scale asset purchases—commonly known as quantitative easing—on long-term interest rates. This effect is independent of the assets purchased, and runs through a reserve-induced portfolio balance channel. For evidence we analyze the reaction of Swiss long-term government bond yields to announcements by the Swiss National Bank to expand central bank reserves without acquiring any long-lived securities.
We find that declines in long-term yields following the announcements mainly reflected reduced term premiums suggestive of reserve-induced portfolio balance effects. We study how real exchange rate dynamics are affected by monetary policy in dynamic, stochastic, contagion game status unavailable, general equilibrium, sticky-price contagion game status unavailable. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence —policy inertia or persistent policy shocks — is key.
When the monetary policy rule has a strong interest rate smoothing component, these models fail to generate high real exchange rate persistence in response to monetary shocks, contagion game status unavailable, as policy inertia hampers their ability to generate a hump-shaped response to such shocks.
Moreover, in the presence of persistent monetary shocks, increasing policy inertia may decrease real exchange rate persistence. We study an investor who is unsure of the dynamics of the economy. Not only are parameters unknown, but the investor does not even know what order model to estimate. She estimates her consumption process nonparametrically—allowing potentially infinite-order dynamics—and prices assets using a pessimistic model that minimizes lifetime utility subject to a constraint on statistical plausibility.
The equilibrium is exactly solvable and we show that the pricing model always includes long-run risks. The paper provides a novel link between ambiguity aversion and non-parametric estimation. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology IT or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains.
Slower underlying productivity growth implies less economic slack than recently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office. We motivate and estimate an alternative model in which long-term unemployment varies endogenously over the business cycle but does not affect price inflation.
In this new model, an increase in long-term unemployment as a share of total unemployment creates short-term tradeoffs for optimal monetary policy and a wedge in the dual mandate. In particular, faced with high long-term unemployment following the Great Recession, optimal monetary policy would allow inflation to overshoot its target more than in standard models. The analyses rely on monthly matched microdata from the Current Population Survey. This estimate lies in the middle-to-upper end of the range of past estimates.
Interest rate decisions by central banks are universally discussed in terms of Taylor rules, which describe policy rates as responding to inflation and some measure of the output gap.
We show that an alternative specification of the monetary policy reaction function, in which the interest rate tracks the evolution of a Wicksellian efficient rate of return as the primary indicator of real activity, fits the U.
This surprising result holds for a wide variety of specifications of the other ingredients of the policy rule and of approaches to the measurement of the output gap. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labor market policies in response to the global demand shock.
Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area, contagion game status unavailable. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the contagion game status unavailable. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments.
This paper provides new evidence on the importance of inflation expectations for variation in nominal interest rates, based on both market-based and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.
Using the information in TIPS breakeven rates and inflation swap rates, I document that movements in inflation compensation are important for explaining variation in long-term nominal interest rates, contagion game status unavailable, both unconditionally as well koren women escorts conditionally on macroeconomic data surprises. Daily changes in inflation compensation and changes in long-term nominal rates generally display a close statistical relationship.
The sensitivity of inflation compensation to macroeconomic data surprises is substantial, and it explains a sizable share of the macro response of nominal rates.
The paper also documents that survey expectations of inflation exhibit significant comovement with variation in nominal interest rates, as well as significant responses to macroeconomic news. First, households may have optimally adjusted to lower wealth by reducing their demand for debt and implicitly, their demand for consumption. Alternatively, banks may have been more reluctant to lend in areas with pronounced real estate declines. Our evidence is consistent with the second explanation.
Renters with low risk scores, compared to homeowners in the same markets, reduced their levels of nonmortgage debt and credit card debt more in counties where house prices fell more. The contrast suggests that the observed reductions in aggregate borrowing were more driven by cutbacks in the provision of credit than by a demand-based response to lower housing wealth.
We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity contagion game status unavailable inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression FAVAR to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy.
A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone.
We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of Western market economies.
Job loss reduces household income roughly by half on average, and for UI recipients benefits replace just under half of this loss.
Accordingly, when benefits end the household loses UI income equal to roughly one-quarter of total pre-separation household income and about one-third of pre-exhaustion household income. Only a small portion of this loss is offset by increased income from food stamps and other safety net programs. The share of families with income below the poverty line nearly doubles. The subsequent collapse of the housing market and the asain massage palor vids default rates on residential mortgages raise the issue of whether the pace contagion game status unavailable house price appreciation and the mix of borrowers may have affected the influence of fundamentals in housing and mortgage markets.
This paper examines that issue in connection with one aspect of mortgage financing, the choice among fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. This analysis is motivated in part by the increased use of adjustable-rate mortgage financing, notably among lower credit-rated borrowers, during the peak of the housing boom.
Based on analysis of a large sample of loan level data, we find strong evidence that house price appreciation dampened the influence of a number of fundamentals mortgage pricing terms and other interest rate related metrics that previous research finds to be important determinants of mortgage financing choices. With regard to the mix of borrowers, the evidence indicates that, while low risk-rated borrowers were affected on the margin more by house price appreciation, on balance those borrowers tended be at least as responsive to fundamentals as high risk rated borrowers.
The higher propensity of low credit-rated borrowers to choose adjustable-rate financing compared with high credit-rated borrowers in the housing boom appears to have been related to borrower credit risk metrics. Given the evidence related to loan pricing terms, other interest rate metrics and fixed effects, the relation of credit risk to mortgage financing choice seems more consistent with considerations such as credit constraints, risk preferences, and mortgage tenor than just a systematic lack of financial sophistication among higher contagion game status unavailable risk borrowers.
Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed the same job security as government employees. In our estimation, we correct a self-selection bias in occupational choices and we disentangle the effects of uncertainty from pessimistic outlook, contagion game status unavailable.
Precautionary savings motive is thus an important factor that drives the observed rising Chinese saving rate.
The ability of the usual factors from empirical arbitrage-free representations of the term structure—that is, spanned factors—to account for interest rate volatility dynamics has been much debated. We examine this issue with a comprehensive set of new arbitrage-free term structure specifications that allow for spanned stochastic volatility to be linked to one or more of the yield curve factors.
Treasury yields, we find that much realized stochastic volatility cannot be associated with spanned term structure factors. However, a simulation study reveals that the usual realized volatility metric is misleading when yields contain plausible measurement noise.
We argue that other metrics should contagion game status unavailable used to validate stochastic volatility models. As these transition dynamics fade, U. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth.
For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future. While discrete measures have been advocated in the literature, they pose estimation problems under fixed effects due to incidental parameter issues. We use two methods to address these issues, the bias-correction method of Fernandez-Val, which directly computes the marginal effects, and the parameterized Wooldridge method.
Estimation under the Fernandez-Val method consistently indicates contagion game status unavailable statistically and economically important role for income in democracy, while under the Wooldridge method contagion game status unavailable obtain much smaller and not always statistically significant coefficients.
A likelihood ratio test rejects the pooled full sample used under the Wooldridge estimation method against the smaller fixed effects sample that only admits observations with changing democracy measures.
Our analysis therefore favors a positive role for income in promoting democracy, but does not preclude a role for institutions in determining democratic status as the omitted countries under Fernandez Val-fixed effect method appear to differ systematically by institutional quality measures which have a positive impact on democratization.
Unsustainable growth in program costs and beneficiaries, together with a growing recognition that even people with severe impairments can work, led to fundamental disability policy reforms in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Great Britain.
In Australia, contagion game status unavailable, rapid growth in disability recipiency led to more modest reforms.
Here we describe the factors driving unsustainable DI program growth in the U. Although each country took a unique path to making and implementing fundamental reforms, shared lessons emerge from their experiences. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound ZLB on nominal interest rates. In modeling these yields, we compare the performance of a standard affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model DTSMwhich ignores the ZLB, and a shadow-rate DTSM, which respects the ZLB.
We find that the standard affine model is likely to exhibit declines in fit and forecast performance with very low interest rates. In contrast, the shadow-rate model mitigates ZLB problems significantly and we document superior performance for this model class in the most recent period. To support the economy, the Federal Reserve amassed a large portfolio of long-term bonds, contagion game status unavailable.
Unlike past examinations of this interest rate risk, we attach probabilities to alternative interest rate scenarios. These probabilities are obtained from a dynamic term structure model that cheap nyc escorts the zero lower bound on yields. Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.
One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies, contagion game status unavailable. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. We find that in advanced economies significant financial stability risks have mostly come from private sector credit booms rather than from the expansion of public debt.
However, we find evidence that high levels of public debt have tended to exacerbate the effects of private sector deleveraging after crises, leading to more prolonged periods of economic depression, contagion game status unavailable.
Recent experience in the advanced economies provides a useful out-of-sample comparison, and meshes closely with these historical patterns. Fiscal space appears to be a constraint in the aftermath of a crisis, then and now. This study examines the impact of major health insurance reform on payments made in the health care sector.
We study the prices of services paid to physicians in the privately insured market during the Massachusetts health care reform. The reform increased the number of insured individuals as well as introduced an online marketplace where insurers compete. Payment increases began around the time legislation passed the House and Senate—the period in which their was a high probability of the bill eventually becoming law.
This result is consistent with fixed-duration payment contracts being negotiated in anticipation of future demand and competition. Furthermore, during the financial crisis, the extent to which banks delayed loan loss recognition is found to have had a significant effect on bank opacity, confirming an important concern raised by the Financial Crisis Advisory Group.
This paper presents a regime-switching model of the yield curve with two states. One is a normal state, the other is a zero-bound state that represents the case when the monetary policy target rate is at its zero lower bound for a prolonged period.
The model delivers estimates of the time-varying probability of exiting the zero-bound state, and it outperforms standard three- and four-factor term structure models as well as a shadow rate model at prostitutes in england short-rate expectations and the compression in yield volatility near the zero lower bound.
Declines in interest rates in advanced economies during the global financial crisis resulted in surges in capital flows to emerging market economies and triggered advocacy of capital control policies. We evaluate the effectiveness for macroeconomic stabilization and the welfare implications of the use of capital account policies in a monetary DSGE model of a small open economy.
Our model features incomplete markets, imperfect asset substitutability, and nominal rigidities. In this environment, policymakers can respond contagion game status unavailable fluctuations in capital flows through capital account policies such as sterilized interventions and taxing capital inflows, in addition to conventional monetary policy.
Our welfare analysis suggests that optimal sterilization and capital controls are complementary policies. The manner firms respond to shocks reflects fundamental features of labor, capital, and commodity markets, as well as advances in finance and technology, contagion game status unavailable. Such features are integral to constructing models of the macroeconomy.
In this paper we document secular shifts in the margins firms use to adjust to shocks that have consequences for their cyclical behavior. These new business cycle facts on the comovement of output and its inputs are a natural complement contagion game status unavailable analyzing output and its expenditure components.
Our findings shed light on the changing cyclicality of productivity in response to different shocks.
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms contagion game status unavailable each sector, but cannot move across sectors.
To isolate the contagion game status unavailable of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide or firm-specific factor markets. Sectoral factor specificity generates within-sector strategic substitutability and tends to induce across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting.
Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two models, depending on parameterization and the distribution of price rigidity across sectors. Under the empirical distribution for the U.
This is consistent with the idea that factor price equalization might take place gradually over florida beach babe, so that firm-specificity may serve as a reasonable short-run approximation, whereas economy-wide markets are likely a better description of how factors of production are allocated in the longer run.
The present paper analyzes how frictional labor markets affect that analysis. These predictions are consistent with empirical evidence from a variety of sources.
Traditional, fixed-labor measures of risk aversion show no stable relationship to the equity premium in a standard real business cycle model with search frictions, while the closed-form expressions derived in the present paper match the equity premium closely. What determines the frequency domain properties of a stochastic process? Contagion game status unavailable much risk comes from high frequencies, business cycle frequencies or low frequency swings?
If these properties are under the influence of an agent, who is compensated by a principal according to the distribution of risk across frequencies, then the nature of this contracting problem will affect the spectral properties of the endogenous outcome. Thus, the regulator is fooled into thinking there has been an overall reduction in risk when, in fact, there has simply been a frequency shift.
In the second thought experiment, the regulator is not myopic, but simply cares more about risk from certain frequencies, perhaps due to the preferences of the constituents he represents or because certain types of market incompleteness make certain frequencies of risk more damaging.
We model this intuition by positing a filter design problem for the agent and also by a particular type of portfolio selection problem, in which the agent chooses among investment projects with different spectral properties. We discuss implications of these models for macroprudential policy and regulatory arbitrage. Two notable examples are the Long-Run Risk and rare disaster frameworks.
Such models are difficult to characterize from consumption data alone. Accordingly, concerns have been raised regarding their specification. Acknowledging that both phenomena are naturally subject to ambiguity, we show that an ambiguity-averse agent may behave as if Long-Run Risk and disasters exist even if they do not or exaggerate them if they do.
Consequently, prices may be misleading in characterizing these phenomena since they encode a pessimistic perspective of the data-generating process. Detailed examination of the magnitude, determinants and implications of this decline delivers five conclusions. First, around one third of the decline in the published labor share is an artifact of a progressive understatement of the labor income of the self-employed underlying the headline measure.
By contrast, the recent decline has been dominated by trade and manufacturing sectors. Fourth, institutional explanations based on the decline in unionization also receive weak support. Finally, we provide evidence that highlights the offshoring of the labor-intensive component of the U. We argue that central bank large-scale asset purchases—commonly known as quantitative easing QE —can reduce priced frictions to trading through a liquidity channel that operates by changing the shape of the price distribution of the targeted securities.
This suggests that QE can improve market liquidity. Elevated government debt levels in advanced economies have risen rapidly as sovereigns absorbed private sector losses and cyclical deficits blew up in the Global Financial Crisis and subsequent slump.
A rush to fiscal austerity followed but its justifications and impacts have been heavily debated. Research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates remains unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data.
This paper reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified framework. We do this by first evaluating the validity of common identification assumptions used by the literature and find that they are largely violated in the data. Next, we use new propensity score methods for time-series data with local projections to quantify how contractionary austerity really is, especially in economies operating below potential.
We find that the adverse effects of austerity may have been understated. We develop flexible semiparametric time series methods that are then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need for assumptions about the process generating macroeconomic outcomes.
The proposed procedure, based on propensity score weighting, easily accommodates asymmetric and nonlinear responses. Application of this estimator to the effects of monetary restraint shows the Fed to be an effective inflation fighter. Estimates for recent financial crisis years are similar to those for the earlier, pre-crisis period, contagion game status unavailable. This paper studies the empirical relevance of temptation and self-control using household-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.
We construct an infinite-horizon consumption-savings model that allows, but does not require, temptation and self-control in preferences. In the presence of temptation, a wealth-consumption ratio, in addition to consumption growth, becomes a determinant of the asset-pricing kernel, and the importance of this additional pricing factor depends on the strength of temptation. Our estimation provides empirical support for temptation preferences.
Based on our estimates, we explore some quantitative implications of this class of preferences for capital accumulation in a neoclassical growth model and the welfare cost of the business cycle. We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. The model is confronted with U. The estimation results account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, contagion game status unavailable, land prices and unemployment move in opposite directions over the business cycle.
Second, a shock that moves land prices also generates the observed large volatility of unemployment. According to standard macroeconomic models, this should have greatly reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy and increased the efficacy of fiscal policy.
However, these models also imply that asset prices and private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current level of the monetary policy rate. Thus, interest rates with a year or more to maturity are arguably more relevant for asset prices and the economy, contagion game status unavailable it is unclear to what extent those yields have been affected by the zero lower bound.
In particular, contagion game status unavailable, we compare the sensitivity of these rates to macroeconomic news during periods when short-term interest rates were very low to that during normal times. We compare these findings to the U. Has the recent wave of capital controls and prudential foreign exchange FX measures been effective in promoting exchange rate stability? We calculate daily measures of exchange rate volatility, absolute crash risk, contagion game status unavailable, and tail risk implied in currency option prices, and we construct indices of capital controls and prudential FX measures taking into account the exact date when policy changes are implemented.
Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence that i tightening controls on non-residents suppresses daily exchange rate fluctuations at the cost of increasing the frequency of outliers, ii easing controls on residents truly improves exchange rate stability over all dimensions, and iii tightening prudential FX measures not specific to derivative markets reduces absolute crash risk and tail risk, with no effect on volatility.
This paper provides a historical overview on financial crises and their origins. The objective is to discuss a few of the modern statistical methods that can be used to evaluate predictors of these rare events. The problem involves prediction of binary events and therefore fits modern statistical learning, signal processing theory, and classification methods. The discussion also emphasizes the need to supplement statistics and computational techniques with economics.
We hot dog truck prostitution that conventional dynamic term structure models DTSMs estimated on recent U. In contrast, shadow-rate DTSMs account for the ZLB by construction, capture the resulting distributional asymmetry of future short rates, and achieve good forecast performance.
These models provide more accurate estimates of the most likely path for future monetary policy—including the timing of policy liftoff from the ZLB and the pace of subsequent policy tightening, contagion game status unavailable.
We also demonstrate the benefits of including macroeconomic factors in a shadow-rate DTSM when yields are constrained near the ZLB. We evaluate the effects of state-provided financial incentives for biotech companies, which are part of a growing trend of placed-based policies designed to spur innovation clusters. Most of the gains are due to the relocation of star scientist to adopting states, with limited effect on the productivity of incumbent scientists already in the state.
The gains are singapore prostitute photos among private sector inventors. We uncover little effect of subsidies on academic researchers, consistent with the fact that their incentives are unaffected. Our estimates indicate that the effect on overall employment in the biotech sector is of comparable magnitude to that on star scientists. Consistent with a model where workers are fairly mobile across states, we find limited effects on salaries in the industry, contagion game status unavailable.
We uncover large effects on employment in the non-traded sector due to a sizable multiplier effect, with the largest impact on employment in construction and retail.
Finally, we find limited evidence of a displacement effect on states that are geographically close, or states that economically close as measured by migration flows. The mechanism used to apportion ARRA highway grants to states allows us to isolate exogenous changes in these grants. We examine whether rent- seeking efforts could help explain this result. We find states with more political contributions from the public-works sector tended to spend more out of their ARRA highway funds than other states.
This paper examines the implications of uncertainty about the effects of monetary policy for optimal monetary policy with an application to the current situation. Using a stylized macroeconomic model, I derive optimal policies under uncertainty for both conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
According to an estimated version of this model, the U. Optimal monetary policy absent uncertainty would quickly restore real GDP close to its potential level and allow the inflation rate to rise temporarily above the longer-run target. By contrast, the optimal policy under uncertainty is more muted in its response. As a result, output and inflation return to target levels only gradually. This analysis highlights three important insights for monetary policy under uncertainty.
First, even in the presence of considerable uncertainty about the effects of monetary policy, the optimal policy nevertheless responds strongly to shocks: uncertainty does not imply inaction. Second, one contagion game status unavailable simply look at point forecasts and judge whether policy is optimal. Indeed, once one recognizes uncertainty, some moderation in monetary policy may well be optimal. Third, in the context of multiple policy instruments, the optimal strategy is to rely on the instrument associated with the least uncertainty and use alternative, more uncertain instruments only when the least uncertain instrument is employed to its fullest extent possible.
We uncover a new channel through which international finance is related to international trade: formation of international bank linkages increases exports. Bank linkages are measured for each pair of countries in each year as a number of bank pairs in these two countries that are connected through cross-border syndicated lending. Using a gravity approach to model trade with a full set of fixed effects source-year, target-year, source-targetwe find that new connections between banks in a given country-pair lead to an increase in trade flows between these countries in the following year.
We conjecture that contagion game status unavailable mechanism for contagion game status unavailable effect is the role bank linkages play in reducing export risk and present six sets of results supporting this conjecture. In particular, using industry-level trade data and controlling for country-pair-year and industry fixed effects, we find that new bank linkages have larger impacts on trade in industries with more differentiated goods, i.
Finally, we find that the formation of new bank linkages creates trade diversions from countries competing for similar imports, contagion game status unavailable. A large body of asain massage parlor with happy endings ft worth research, looking across countries, states, and metropolitan areas, has found contagion game status unavailable and statistically significant associations between income inequality and mortality, contagion game status unavailable.
By contrast, in recent years more robust statistical methods using larger and richer data sources have generally pointed to little or no relationship between inequality and mortality. This paper aims both to document how methodological shortcomings tend to positively bias this statistical association and to advance this literature by estimating the inequality-mortality relationship. We use a comprehensive and rich new data set that combines U.
Using panel data estimation techniques, we find evidence of a statistically significant negative relationship between mortality and inequality. This finding that increased inequality is associated with declines in mortality at the county level suggests a change in course for the literature. In particular, the emphasis to date on the potential psychosocial and resource allocation costs associated with higher inequality is likely missing important offsetting positives that may dominate.
We find only weak cross-country linkages in longer-term interest rates, but much stronger linkages in equity markets.
This finding is consistent with the greater development and liberalization of equity markets relative to bond markets in China, as well as increasing business and trade linkages in the region. We also asain massage parlor massaging huge black cock that the strength of the correlation of equity prices changes between China and other Asia countries increased markedly during the crisis and has remained high in recent years.
By contrast, the transmission of U. We examine the effects of unconventional and conventional monetary policy announcements on the value of the dollar using high-frequency intraday data.
Identifying monetary policy surprises from changes in interest rate futures prices in narrow windows around policy announcements, we find that surprise easings in monetary policy since the crisis began have had significant effects on the value of the dollar. We document that these changes are comparable to the effects of conventional policy changes prior to the crisis.
The recovery from the recent global financial crisis exhibited a decline in the synchronization of Asian contagion game status unavailable with the rest of the world. However, a simple model based on output gaps demonstrates that the decline in business cycle synchronization during the recovery from the global financial crisis was exceptionally steep by historical standards. We posit two potential reasons for this exceptionally steep decline: First, financial markets during this recovery improved from particularly distressed conditions relative to previous downturns.
Second, monetary policy during the recovery from the crisis was constrained in western economies by the zero bound, but less so in Asia. However, contagion game status unavailable, we find that the impact of reduced financial contagion actually goes modestly against our predictions, contagion game status unavailable.
Using monthly matched individual data from the U. We rely on individual variation in benefit availability based on the duration of unemployment spells and the length of Contagion game status unavailable benefits available in the state and month, conditional on state economic conditions and individual characteristics, contagion game status unavailable.
We find a small but statistically significant reduction in the unemployment exit rate and a small increase in the expected duration of unemployment arising from both sets of UI extensions. The effect on exits and duration is primarily due to a reduction in exits from the labor force rather than a decrease in exits to employment the job finding rate. The magnitude of the overall effect on exits and duration is similar across the two episodes of benefit extensions.
Although the overall effect of UI extensions on exits from unemployment is small, it implies a substantial effect of extended benefits on the steady-state share of unemployment in the cross-section that is long-term. We introduce a model of monetary policy with downward nominal wage rigidities and show that both the slope and curvature of the Phillips curve depend on the level of inflation and the extent of downward nominal wage rigidities.
This is true for contagion game status unavailable both the long-run and the short-run Phillips curve. Comparing simulation results from the model with data on U. Standard Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models do not rule out negative nominal interest rates — a conspicuous defect with yields near zero in many countries.
Alternative shadow-rate models, which respect the nonlinearity at the zero lower bound, have been rarely used because of the extreme computational burden of their estimation. However, by valuing the call option on negative shadow yields, we provide the first estimates of a three-factor shadow-rate model.
We validate our option-based results by closely matching them using a simulation-based approach. We also show that the shadow short rate is sensitive to model fit and specification. Regional inequality in China appears to be persistent and even growing in the last two decades. We study potential explanations for this phenomenon. After making adjustments for the difference in the cost of living across provinces, we find that contagion game status unavailable of the inequality in real wages could contagion game status unavailable attributed to differences in quality of labor, industry composition, labor supply elasticities, and geographical location of provinces.
These factors, taken together, explain about half of the cross-province real wage difference. Interestingly, we find that inter-province redistribution did not help offset regional inequality during our sample period. We also demonstrate that inter-province migration, while driven in part by levels and changes in wage differences across provinces, does not offset these differences.
These results imply that cross-province labor market mobility in China is still limited, which contributes to the persistence of cross-province wage differences. Conventional analyses of cyclical fluctuations in the labor market ascribe a minor role to the labor force participation margin. In contrast, a flows-based decomposition of the variation in labor market stocks reveals that transitions at the participation margin account for around one-third of the cyclical variation in the unemployment rate.
This result is robust to adjustments of data for spurious transitions, and for time aggregation. Inferences from conventional, stocks-based analyses of labor force participation are shown to be subject to a stock-flow fallacy, neglecting the offsetting forces of worker flows that underlie the modest cyclicality of the participation rate. A novel analysis of history dependence in worker flows demonstrates that a large part of the contribution of the participation margin can be traced to cyclical fluctuations in the composition of the unemployed by labor market attachment.
In particular, we analyze how, in light of these forces, the downstream firm sets the price of the product over its life cycle, contagion game status unavailable. We focus on personal computers PCs and introduce two novel data sets that describe prices and sales in the industry.
The analysis implies that rapid price declines are not caused by upstream innovation alone, but rather by the combination of upstream innovation and a competitive environment. We investigate the behavior of the equilibrium price-rent ratio for housing in a standard asset pricing model and compare the model predictions to survey evidence on the return expectations of real-world housing investors.
We allow for time-varying risk aversion via external habit formation and time-varying persistence and volatility in the stochastic process for rent growth, consistent with U. Under fully-rational expectations, the model significantly underpredicts the volatility of the U.
Contagion game status unavailable demonstrate that the model can approximately match the volatility of the price-rent ratio in the data if near-rational agents continually update their estimates for the mean, persistence and volatility of fundamental rent growth using only recent data i.
These two versions of the model can be distinguished by their predictions for the correlation between expected future returns on housing and the price-rent ratio. Only the moving-average model predicts a positive correlation such that agents tend to expect high future returns when prices are high relative to fundamental—a feature that is consistent with a wide variety of survey evidence from real estate and stock markets.
This paper proposes a simple method to structurally estimate a model over a period of time containing a regime shift. It then evaluates to which degree it is relevant to explicitly acknowledge the break in the estimation procedure.
We show that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious estimates of model parameters including parameters in both policy and non-policy economic relations.
Accounting for the regime change suggests that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the first regime, and mostly to inflation in the second.
The sources of business cycle fluctuations and their transmission mechanism are significantly affected by the exchange rate regime. We contagion game status unavailable a DSGE model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student-t distribution. This result holds even if we exclude the Great Recession period from the sample.
We also show that inference about low-frequency changes in volatility and in particular, inference about the magnitude of the Great Moderation is different once we allow for fat tails.
In this study, we assess the sources of the rising medical-care expenditures in the commercial sector. We employ a novel framework for decomposing expenditure growth into four components at the disease level: service price growth, service utilization growth, treated disease prevalence growth, and demographic shift. There was no growth in service utilization at the aggregate level over this period. Price and utilization growth were especially large for the treatment of malignant neoplasms.
For many conditions, treated prevalence has shifted towards preventive treatment and away from treatment for late-stage illnesses, contagion game status unavailable. Because house lock is likely to extend job search in the local labour market for homeowners whose home value has declined, I focus on differences in unemployment duration between homeowners and renters across geographic areas differentiated by the severity of the decline in home prices. The empirical analyses rely on microdata from the monthly Current Population Survey CPS files and an econometric method that enables the estimation of individual and aggregate covariate effects on unemployment durations using repeated cross-section data.
I do not uncover systematic evidence to support the house-lock hypothesis. We document the shift in the Beveridge curve in the U. We argue that a decline in quits, contagion game status unavailable, the relatively poor performance of contagion game status unavailable construction sector, and the extension of unemployment insurance benefits have largely driven this shift.
We then introduce a method to estimate fitted Beveridge curves for other OECD countries for which data on vacancies and employment by job tenure are available. We show that Portugal, Spain, and the U. We introduce permanently-shifting income shares into a growth model with two types of agents. The model exactly replicates the U. The baseline simulation delivers large welfare gains for capital owners and nontrivial welfare losses for workers.
We simulate the Federal Reserve second Large-Scale Asset Purchase contagion game status unavailable in a DSGE model with bond market segmentation estimated on U. GDP growth increases by less than a third of a percentage point and inflation barely changes relative to the absence of intervention.
The key reasons behind our findings are small estimates for both the elasticity of the risk premium to the quantity of long-term debt and the degree of financial market segmentation. Absent the commitment to keep the nominal interest rate at its lower bound for male prostitution photos extended period, the effects of asset purchase programs would be even smaller.
This paper presents the Economic Security Index ESIa new, more comprehensive measure of economic insecurity. By combining data from multiple surveys, we create an integrated measure of volatility in available household resources, contagion game status unavailable, accounting for fluctuations in income and out-of pocket medical expenses, as well as financial wealth sufficient to buffer against these shocks.
We also find, however, that there is substantial disparity in the degree to which different groups are exposed to economic risk.
As the ESI derives from a data-independent conceptual foundation, it can be measured using different data sources, contagion game status unavailable. We find that the degree and disparity by which insecurity has risen is robust across these sources.
We explore the role of foreclosure inventories in a model of housing supply. The foreclosure variable is necessary to account for the steep and sustained drop in new construction activity following the U. There is modest evidence that local banking conditions play a role in determining housing starts. We argue that, in addition to observable macro and local factors, housing starts in the Great Recession have been weighed down in part by aggregate uncertainty factors This paper describes a real-time, quarterly growth-accounting database for the U.
The data on inputs, including capital, are used to produce a quarterly series on total factor productivity TFP, contagion game status unavailable. In addition, the dataset implements an adjustment for variations in factor utilization—labor effort contagion game status unavailable the workweek of capital, contagion game status unavailable.
This slowdown preceded the Great Recession. Second, in contrast to some informal commentary, productivity performance during the Great Recession and early in the subsequent recovery was roughly in line with previous experience during deep recessions.
In particular, the evidence suggests substantial labor and capital hoarding. Finally, during the recession and recovery, potential output grew even more slowly— reflecting especially the effect of weak investment on growth in capital input.
Half or more of the shortfall of actual output relative to pre-recession estimates of the potential trend reflects a reduction in potential. A flexible labor margin allows households to absorb shocks to asset values with changes in hours worked as well as changes in consumption. Understanding risk aversion for these preferences is especially important because they are the primary mechanism being used to bring macroeconomic models into closer agreement with asset pricing facts.
Measures backpage dallas asain massage risk aversion commonly used in the literature—including traditional, fixed-labor measures and Cobb-Douglas composite-good measures—show no stable relationship to the equity premium in a standard macroeconomic model, while the closed-form expressions derived in this paper match the equity premium closely. We assess the importance of interpersonal income comparisons using data on suicide deaths.
Transportation spending often plays a prominent role in government efforts to stimulate the economy during downturns. Yet, contagion game status unavailable, despite the frequent use of transportation spending as a form of fiscal stimulus, there is little known about its short- or medium-run effectiveness.
Does it translate quickly prostitution in mexico images higher employment and economic activity or does it impact the economy only slowly over time? This paper reviews the empirical findings in the literature for the United States and other developed economies and compares the effects of transportation spending to those of other types of government spending.
Long half-lives of real exchange rates are often used as evidence against monetary sticky price models. The first key result is that the extremely persistent real exchange rate found commonly in post Bretton Woods data does not apply to the preceding fixed exchange rate period in our sample, where the half-live was roughly half as large.
The second key result explains the rise in persistence over time by identifying underlying shocks using a panel VECM model. Shocks to the nominal exchange rate induce more persistent real exchange rate responses compared to price shocks, and these shocks became more prevalent under a flexible exchange rate regime.
The same DSGE framework allows us to evaluate the welfare implications of alternative liberalization policies. Capital account and exchange rate liberalization would have allowed the Chinese central bank to better stabilize the external shocks experienced during the global financial crisis. We use dynamic term structure models to uncover to what extent signaling and portfolio balance channels caused these declines.
For Australian and German yields, signaling effects were present but likely more moderate, and portfolio balance effects appear to have played a relatively larger role than in the U. Portfolio balance effects were small for Japanese yields and signaling effects basically nonexistent.
These findings about LSAP channels are consistent with predictions based on interest rate dynamics during normal times: Signaling effects tend to be large for countries with strong yield responses to conventional U. Progress on the question of whether policymakers should respond directly to financial variables requires a realistic economic model that captures the links between asset prices, credit expansion, and real economic activity.
Standard DSGE models with fully-rational expectations have difficulty producing large swings in house prices and household debt that resemble the patterns observed in many industrial countries over the past decade. We show that the introduction of simple moving-average forecast rules for a subset of agents can significantly magnify the volatility and persistence of house prices and household debt relative to otherwise similar model with fully-rational expectations.
Of these, we find that a debt-to-income type constraint is the most effective tool for dampening overall excess volatility in the model economy. While an interest-rate response to house price growth or credit growth can stabilize some economic variables, it can significantly magnify the volatility of others, particularly inflation, contagion game status unavailable.
We show that to capture the empirical effects of uncertainty on the unemployment rate, it is crucial to study the interactions between search frictions and nominal rigidities. Our argument is guided by empirical evidence showing that an increase in uncertainty leads to a large increase in unemployment and a significant decline in inflation, suggesting that uncertainty partly operates via an aggregate demand channel.
To understand the mechanism through which uncertainty generates these macroeconomic effects, we incorporate search frictions and nominal rigidities in a DSGE model. Current Population Survey, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and state-level Job Vacancy Surveys to construct annual estimates of the number of job openings in contagion game status unavailable U.
The results reveal that: i During the Great Recession job openings for all occupations declined. The standard argument for abstracting from capital accumulation in sticky-price macro models is based on contagion game status unavailable short-run focus: over this horizon, capital does not move much.
This argument is more problematic in the context of real exchange rate RER dynamics, which are very persistent, contagion game status unavailable. In this paper we study RER dynamics in sticky-price models with capital accumulation. We analyze both a model with an economy-wide rental market for homogeneous capital, and an economy in which capital is sector specific.
We find that, in response to monetary shocks, capital increases the persistence and reduces the volatility of RERs. When comparing the implications of capital specificity, we find that, perhaps surprisingly, switching from economy-wide capital markets to sector-specific capital tends to decrease the persistence of RERs in response to monetary shocks.
Finally, we study how RER dynamics are affected by monetary policy and find that the source of interest rate persistence — policy inertia or persistent policy shocks — contagion game status unavailable key. We use an arbitrage-free term structure model with spanned stochastic volatility to determine the value of the deflation protection option embedded in Treasury inflation protected securities TIPS.
We analyze the declines in government bond yields contagion game status unavailable followed the announcements of plans by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to buy longer-term government debt.
Using empirical dynamic term structure models, we decompose these declines into changes in expectations about future monetary contagion game status unavailable and changes in term premiums, contagion game status unavailable.
We find that declines in U. Treasury yields mainly reflected lower policy expectations, while declines in U. Thus, the relative importance of the signaling and portfolio balance channels of quantitative easing may depend on market institutional structures and central bank communications policies.
We take the more general view that the null model is only approximative and in some cases it may be altogether unavailable. As a consequence, one cannot derive the usual analytic expressions nor resample from the null contagion game status unavailable as is usually done when bootstrap methods are used.
The paper derives methods to construct approximate rectangular regions for simultaneous probability coverage which correct for serial correlation. The techniques appear to work contagion game status unavailable in simulations and in an application to the Greenbook path-forecasts of growth and inflation.
We examine the dynamic macroeconomic effects of public infrastructure investment both theoretically and empirically, using a novel data set we compiled on various highway spending measures, contagion game status unavailable. Relying on the institutional design of federal grant distributions among states, contagion game status unavailable, we construct a measure of government highway spending shocks that captures revisions in expectations about future government investment.
Similar impulse responses are found in a number of other macroeconomic variables, contagion game status unavailable. The transmission channel for these responses appears to be through initial funding leading to building, over several years, of public highway pictures of prostitutes in new york city which then temporarily boosts private sector productivity and local demand, contagion game status unavailable.
To help interpret these findings, we develop an open economy New Keynesian model with productive public capital in which regions are part of a monetary and fiscal union.
We show that the presence of productive public capital in this model can yield impulse responses with the same qualitative pattern that we find empirically.
We estimate value-added models of outcomes on multiple choice and essay exams, with matched classroom pairs for each teacher enabling random-effects and fixed-effects estimation. The results show a substantial impact of specialized teacher experience and college-level coursework in economics. According to many macroeconomic models, this should have greatly reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy and increased the efficacy of fiscal policy.
However, standard macroeconomic theory also implies that private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short term interest rates, not just the current level of the overnight rate.
Thus, interest rates with a year or more to maturity are arguably more relevant for the economy, and it is unclear to what extent those yields have been constrained. In this contagion game status unavailable, we measure the effects of the zero lower bound on interest rates of any maturity by estimating the time-varying high-frequency sensitivity of those interest rates to macroeconomic announcements relative to a benchmark period in which the zero bound was not a concern.
We combine questions from the Michigan Survey about future information, unemployment, and interest rates to investigate whether households are aware of the basic features of U. We also document a large degree of variation in the pattern of responses over the business cycle.
We show that announcements about these purchases led to lower long-term interest rates and depreciations of the U. We suggest that LSAP announcements likely involved signaling effects about future growth that led investors to downgrade their U. Moreover, our analysis illustrates the importance of controlling for market expectations when assessing these effects. We find that positive U. In contrast, on days of negative U. We find that the lackluster labor market recovery can be traced in large part to weakness in aggregate demand; only a small part seems attributable to increases in labor market frictions.
This continued labor market weakness has led to the highest level of long-term unemployment in the U. We show that flows from nonparticipation to unemployment are important for understanding the recent evolution of the duration distribution of unemployment.
Simulations that account for these flows suggest that the U. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others —this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We contagion game status unavailable use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang.
In additional to unconditional analysis, we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macroeconomic controls and their lags.
Then we study how past credit accumulation impacts the behavior of not only output but also other key macroeconomic variables such as investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.
We argue that positive co-movements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations through the joint dynamics of land prices and business investment.
We show that when house prices flattened and began their subsequent decline, borrowers had increasingly slow prepayments and that this decline in prepayment rates roughly coincided with the sharp increase in their delinquency rates.
Low credit score borrowers, in particular, display a pronounced negative correlation between default rates and contagion game status unavailable rates. Shortfalls of actual prepayment rates from predicted rates based on an estimated prepayment model suggest that, in addition to the effects of declining house prices, tighter lending standards also may have played a role in weak prepayment activity.
We show that local house prices may be driven almost entirely by the demands of one identifiable group for several years and then by demands of another group at other times. We present evidence that house prices in Hawaii were subject to such regime shifts. Prices responded to demands associated with U. Estimated models with these regime shifts outperformed conventional, constant coefficient models.
The regime-shifting model helps explain why, when, and by how much the volatility and the elasticities of house prices in Hawaii with respect to the incomes and wealth of the U. We employ a novel decomposition technique that allows us to divide the time series for median weekly earnings growth into the part associated with the wage growth of persons employed at the beginning and end of the period the wage growth effect and the part associated with changes in the composition of earners the composition effect, contagion game status unavailable.
The relative importance of these two effects varies widely over the business cycle. When the labor market is tight job switchers get large wage increases, making them account for half of the variation in median weekly earnings growth over our sample.
Their wage growth, as well as that of job-stayers, is procyclical. During labor market downturns, this procyclicality is largely offset by the change in the composition of the workforce, leading aggregate real wages to be almost non-cyclical. Most of this composition effect works through the part-time employment margin. Remarkably, the unemployment margin neither accounts for much of the variation in nor much of the cyclicality of median weekly earnings growth.
This article discusses analytical models of the causes of currency and associated crises, presents basic measures of the incidence of crises, evaluates the accuracy of empirical models in predicting crises, and reviews work measuring the consequences of crises on the real economy. Currency crises have large measurable costs on the economy, but our ability to predict the timing and magnitude of crises is limited by our theoretical understanding of the complex interactions between macroeconomic fundamentals, investor expectations and government policy.
Previous research has emphasized the portfolio balance effects of Federal Reserve bond purchases, in which a reduced bond supply lowers term premia. In contrast, we find that such purchases have important signaling effects that lower expected future short-term interest rates.
Our evidence comes from a model-free analysis and from dynamic term structure models that decompose declines in yields following Fed announcements into changes in risk premia and expected short rates. To overcome problems in measuring term premia, we consider bias-corrected model estimation and restricted risk price estimation.
In comparison with other studies, our estimates of signaling effects are larger in magnitude and statistical significance. This paper provides new estimates of the impact of monetary policy actions and macroeconomic news on the term structure of nominal interest rates. The key novelty is to parsimoniously capture the impact of news on all interest rates using a simple no-arbitrage model. The different types of news are analyzed in a common framework by recognizing their heterogeneity, which allows for a systematic comparison of their effects.
This approach leads to novel empirical findings: First, monetary policy causes a substantial amount of volatility in both short-term and contagion game status unavailable interest rates. Second, macroeconomic data surprises have small and mostly insignificant effects on the long end of the term structure. Third, the term-structure response to macroeconomic news is consistent with considerable interest-rate smoothing by the Federal Reserve.
Fourth, monetary policy surprises are multidimensional while macroeconomic surprises are one-dimensional. Analyzing university faculty and graduate student data for the top-ten U.
We find, using instrumental variables analysis, robust evidence that this correlation is driven by the causal effect of the female faculty share on the gender composition of the entering PhD class. This result provides an explanation for persistent underrepresentation of women in economics, as well as for persistent segregation of women across academic fields. While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity.
In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties.
We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to contagion game status unavailable United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure.
We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness. We analyze the economic benefit of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities TIPS issuance by estimating the inflation risk premium that penalizes nominal Treasuries vis-a-vis TIPS and the cost derived from TIPS liquidity disadvantage.
To account for the latter, we introduce a novel model-independent range for the liquidity premium in TIPS exploiting additional information from inflation swaps. We also adjust our model estimates for finite-sample bias. The resulting measure provides a lower bound to the benefit of TIPS, which is positive on average.
Thus, our analysis suggests that the Treasury could save billions of dollars by significantly expanding its TIPS program. We examine the optimal monetary policy in the presence of endogenous feedback loops between asset prices and economic activity. We reconsider this issue in the context of the financial accelerator model and when macroprudential policies can be pursued. Absent macroprudential policy, we first show that the optimal monetary policy asain massage in jaffery nh considerably against movements in asset prices and risk premia.
We show that the optimal policy can be closely approximated and implemented using a speed-limit rule that places a substantial weight on the growth of financial variables. An endogenous feedback loop is crucial for this result, and price stability is otherwise quasi-optimal. Similarly, introducing a simple macroprudential rule that links reserve requirements to credit growth dampens the endogenous feedback loop, leading the optimal monetary policy to focus on price stability.
The importance of information asymmetries in the capital markets is commonly accepted as one of the main reasons for home bias in investment. We posit that effects of such asymmetries may be reduced through relationships between banks established through bank-to-bank lending and provide evidence to support this claim. We find that recessions and banking crises tend to have negative effects on the formation of new connections and that these effects are not the same for all countries or all banks.
Data show that better creditor protection is correlated across countries with lower average stock market volatility. Moreover, countries with better creditor protection seem to have suffered lower decline in their stock market indexes during the current financial crisis.
To explain this regularity, we use a Tobin q model of investment and show that stronger creditor protection increases the expected level and lowers the variance of stock prices in the presence of credit crunches.
In particular, we find that crises are more frequent in countries with poor creditor protection. Using propensity score matching we also show that during crises stock market returns fall by more in countries with poor creditor protection. The affine dynamic term structure model DTSM is the canonical empirical finance representation of the yield curve. However, the possibility that DTSM estimates may be distorted by small-sample bias has been largely ignored.
We show that conventional estimates of DTSM coefficients are indeed severely biased, contagion game status unavailable, and this bias results in misleading estimates of expected future short-term interest rates and of long-maturity term premia.
We provide a variety of bias-corrected estimates of affine DTSMs, both for maximally-flexible and over-identified specifications. Our estimates imply short rate expectations and term premia that are more plausible from a macro-finance perspective. We document that trust in public institutions—and particularly trust in banks, business and government—has declined over recent years. Cross-country comparisons reveal a clear legacy of the Great Recession, and those countries whose unemployment grew the most suffered the biggest loss in confidence in institutions, particularly in trust in government and the financial sector.
Finally, analysis of several repeated cross-sections of confidence within U. We construct probability forecasts for episodes of price deflation i. The estimated deflation probabilities are generally consistent with those from macroeconomic models and surveys of professional forecasters, but they also provide highfrequency insight into the views of financial market participants.
The probabilities can also be used to price the deflation option embedded in real Treasury bonds. This doubt stems mainly from the fact that while a strong positive correlation exists between income and democracy levels, the relationship disappears when one controls for country fixed effects.
This contagion game status unavailable the possibility that the correlation in the data reflects a third causal characteristic, such as institutional quality.
In this paper, we reexamine the robustness of the income-democracy relationship. We extend the research on this topic in two imensions: first, we make use of newer income data, which allows for the construction of larger samples with more within-country observations. Second, we concentrate on panel estimation methods that explicitly allow for the fact that the primary measures of democracy are censored with substantial mass sex via inte the boundaries, or binary censored variables.
Our results show that when one uses both the new income data available and a properly non linear estimator, contagion game status unavailable, a statistically significant positive income-democracy relationship is robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects.
We identify six significant, discrete announcements in the course of Operation Twist that potentially could have had a major effect on financial markets, and show that four did have statistically significant effects. This paper develops a production-based asset pricing model with two types of agents and concentrated ownership of physical capital. A large literature has emerged to explain asain massage st cloud mn phenomenon.
A leading explanation is that skill-biased technolog- ical change SBTC increased the demand for skilled labor relative to unskilled labor. In a calibrated vintage capital model with heterogenous labor, this paper examines whether SBTC is likely to have been a major factor in driving up the wage premium.
By contrast, a gradual and very modest shift in the distribution of human capital across workers can easily account for the large observed increase in wage inequality. Relying on a standard job search and matching framework and empirical evidence from a wide array of labor market indicators, we examine whether the natural rate of unemployment has increased since the recession began, and if so, whether the underlying causes are transitory or persistent. Our analyses suggest that the natural rate has risen over the past several years, with our preferred estimate implying an increase from its pre-recession level of close to a percentage point.
An assessment of the underlying factors responsible for this increase, including labor market mismatch, extended unemployment benefits, and uncertainty about overall economic conditions, implies that only a small fraction of this increase is likely to be persistent.
I review the literature on the determinants and patterns of cross-border capital raisings and their effects on developments of domestic markets, highlighting the differences between mature and emerging economies.
I focus on the effects the introduction of the euro how to call a prostitute to your house on European and global capital markets by bringing into existence a currency area comparable in size to that of the United States.
Restrictions on the risk-pricing in dynamic term structure models DTSMs can unleash the power of no-arbitrage by creating a tighter link between cross-sectional and time-series variation of interest rates. This paper presents a new econometric framework for estimation of affine Gaussian DTSMs under restrictions on risk prices, which addresses the issues of a large model space and of model uncertainty using a Bayesian approach.
A simulation study demonstrates the good performance of the proposed method. I obtain novel results for the U. The data strongly favor tight restrictions on risk pricing: only level risk is priced, and only changes in the slope affect term premia. Incorporating the favored restrictions into an otherwise standard model substantially alters implied short-rate expectations and term premia.
Interest rate persistence is higher than in a maximally-flexible model, hence expectations of future short rates are more variable—restrictions on risk prices help resolve the puzzle of implausibly stable short-rate expectations in this literature.
Restricted models attribute a larger share of the secular decline in long-term interest rates over contagion game status unavailable last twenty years to the expectations component, consistent with survey evidence on expectations of future interest rates and inflation. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars.
We check a number of different indicators of crisis contagion game status unavailable, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.
This paper reexamines this consensus in the wake of the financial crisis, which has seen policy rates at their effective lower bound for more than two years in the United States and Japan and near zero in many other countries.
We conduct our analysis using a set of structural and time series statistical models. We find that the decline in economic activity and interest rates in the United States has generally been well outside forecast confidence bands of many empirical macroeconomic models. In contrast, the decline in inflation has contagion game status unavailable less surprising.
We identify a number of factors that help to account for the degree to which models were surprised by recent events. First, contagion game status unavailable, uncertainty about model parameters and latent variables, which were typically ignored in past research, significantly increases the probability of hitting the ZLB.
Second, models that are based primarily on the Great Moderation period severely understate the incidence and severity of ZLB events. Third, the propagation mechanisms and shocks embedded in standard DSGE models appear to be insufficient to generate sustained periods of policy being stuck at the ZLB, such as we now observe.
We conclude that past estimates of the incidence and effects of the ZLB were too low and suggest a need for a general reexamination of the empirical adequacy of standard models. In addition to this statistical analysis, we show that escort kendall ZLB probably had a first-order impact on macroeconomic outcomes in the United States.
In addition, we find miami chinese massage the asset purchases have probably prevented the U, contagion game status unavailable. The negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, known contagion game status unavailable the Beveridge curve, has been relatively stable in the U.
We decompose the recent deviation from the Beveridge curve into different parts using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS. We find that most of the current deviation from the Beveridge curve can be attributed to a shortfall in hires per vacancy.
This shortfall is broad-based across all industries and is particularly pronounced in construction, transportation, trade, and utilities, and leisure and hospitality. Construction alone accounts for more than half of the Beveridge curve gap. Importantly, along with other changes, the reform imposed lifetime time limits for receipt of welfare de facto ending the entitlement nature of cash welfare for poor families with children in the United States, contagion game status unavailable.
Despite dire predictions about poverty and deprivation, the previous research shows that caseloads declined and employment increased, with no detectible increase in poverty or worsening of child-well-being.
In particular, we examine how the cyclicality of the response of program caseloads and family wellbeing has been altered by the implementation of welfare reform. We find that use of food stamps and non-cash safety net program participation have become significantly more responsive across economic cycles after welfare reform, going up more after reform when unemployment increases.
By contrast, there is no evidence that cash welfare for families with children is more responsive after reform, and telephone prostitute evidence that it might be less so.
There is some evidence that poverty increases more with the unemployment rate after reform and no evidence that poverty increases less with unemployment after reform. We find that reform has led to no significant effects on the cyclical responsiveness of food consumption, food insecurity, health insurance, contagion game status unavailable, household crowding, or health.
Suicide is an important scientific phenomenon. Yet its causes remain poorly understood. This study documents a paradox: the happiest places have the highest suicide rates. The study combines findings from two large and rich individual-level data sets—one on life satisfaction and another on suicide deaths—to establish the paradox in a consistent way across U. It replicates the finding in data on Western industrialized nations and checks that the paradox is not an artifact of population composition or confounding factors.
The study concludes with the conjecture that people may find it particularly painful to be unhappy in a happy place, so that the decision to commit suicide is influenced by relative comparisons. This paper considers variance bounds for stock price changes in a general setting that allows for ex-dividend stock prices, risk averse are the women with dan bikzerian prostitutes, and exponentially-growing dividends.
I show that providing investors with more information about future dividends can either increase or decrease the variance of stock price changes, depending on key parameters, namely, those governing the properties of dividends and the stochastic discount factor. We explore the relationships between subjective well-being and income, contagion game status unavailable, as seen across individuals within a given country, between countries in a given year, and as a country grows through time.
We show that richer individuals in a given country are more satisfied with their lives than are poorer individuals, and establish that this relationship is similar in most countries around the world. Turning to the relationship between countries, we show that average life satisfaction is higher in countries with greater GDP per capita.
The magnitude of the satisfaction-income gradient is roughly the same whether we compare individuals or countries, suggesting that absolute income plays an important role in influencing well-being.
These results together suggest that measured subjective well-being grows hand in hand with material living standards. The recent financial crisis has reinforced concerns about the possibility that banks are unusually opaque. Yet the empirical evidence, thus far, is mixed. We find that bank share trading exhibits sharply different features before vs. During the crisis, however, both large and small banking firms exhibit a sharp increase in opacity, consistent with the policy interventions implemented at the time.
Although portfolio composition is significantly related to market microstructure variables, no specific asset category s stand out as particularly important in determining bank opacity. Households that invest in foreign stocks are more sophisticated in their sources of information — they use the Internet more often as a main source of information, talk to their brokers, trade more frequently, and shop more for investment opportunities.
Adding to the wedge between the two groups of investors, foreign stock owners are also substantially wealthier, more educated, and less risk averse than households who focus on domestic stocks only. Furthermore, ownership of foreign stocks increases if the household is headed by women. Nearly half of the U.
We investigate whether JCTCs affect employment growth before, at, and after the time they go into effect. A theoretical model identifies three key conditions necessary for fiscal foresight, captures the effects of the rolling base feature of JCTCs, and generates several empirical predictions, contagion game status unavailable.
We evaluate these predictions in a difference-in-difference regression framework applied to monthly panel data on employment, the JCTC effective and legislative dates, and various controls. We also find that the cumulative effect of the JCTCs is positive, but it takes several years for the full effect to be realized. This paper employs a standard asset pricing model to derive theoretical volatility measures in a setting that allows for varying degrees of investor information about the dividend process.
We show that the volatility of the price-dividend ratio increases monotonically with investor information but the relationship between investor information and equity return volatility or equity premium volatility can be non-monotonic, depending on risk aversion and other parameter values.
Under some plausible calibrations and information assumptions, we show that the model can match the standard deviations of equity market variables in long-run U. The degree of exchange-rate pass-through to import prices is low.
In our framework, pass-through declines solely because of markup adjustments along the intensive margin. In this paper, we model how the entry and exit decisions of exporting firms affect pass-through. This is particularly important since the decline in pass-through has occurred as a greater concentration of foreign contagion game status unavailable are exporting to the United States.
We find that the effect of entry on pass-through is quantitatively small and is more than offset by the adjustment of markups that arise only along the intensive margin. Even though entry has a relatively small impact on pass-through, it nevertheless plays an important role in accounting for the secular rise in imports relative to GDP.
Thus, a key insight of this paper is that adjustment of markups that occur along the intensive margin are quantitatively more important in accounting for secular changes in pass-through than adjustments that occur along the extensive margin. We argue that credit constraints not just amplify fundamental shocks, they can also lead to self-fulfilling business cycles.
To make this point, we study a escorts at work in which productive firms are credit constrained, with credit limits determined by equity value. A drop in equity value tightens credit constraints and reallocates resources from productive to unproductive firms, contagion game status unavailable.
This reallocation reduces aggregate productivity and further depresses equity value and further tightens credit constraints, generating a financial multiplier that amplifies the effects of fundamental shocks. At the aggregate level, credit externality manifests as increasing returns and thus can lead to self-fulfilling business cycles.
In this paper we demonstrate that private firms in China have more difficult access to external finance than state owned firms and argue that they make adjustments to reduce their demand for external funds. In particular, we show that private firms have lower levels of inventory and trade credit and that these levels decrease with the difficulty of obtaining external finance.
Nevertheless, we find no evidence that these lower levels of inventory and trade credit lead to lower productivity or profitability. This paper presents a model comparing the optimal degree of asset class diversification abroad by a central bank and a sovereign wealth fund. We show that if the central bank manages its foreign asset holdings in order to meet balance of payments needs, particularly in reducing the probability of sudden stops in foreign capital inflows, it will place a high weight on holding safer foreign assets.
In contrast, if the sovereign wealth fund, acting on behalf of the Treasury, maximizes the expected utility of a representative domestic agent, it will opt for relatively greater holding of more risky foreign assets. The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function.
The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has, on contagion game status unavailable, accommodated inflationary developments. The paper also runs an exercise incorporating survey-based inflation expectations into the policy reaction function and meets with some success. We derive aggregate growth-accounting implications for a two-sector economy with heterogeneous capital subsidies and monopoly power.
In this economy, measures of total factor productivity TFP growth in terms of quantities the primal and real factor prices the dual can diverge from each other as well as from true technology growth.
These distortions potentially give rise to dynamic reallocation effects that imply that change in technology needs to be measured from the bottom up rather contagion game status unavailable the top down.
We also apply our framework to reconcile divergent TFP estimates in Singapore and to resolve other empirical puzzles regarding Asian development. Because the level and timing of stimulus funds that a state receives was potentially endogenous, I exploit the fact that most of these funds were allocated according to exogenous formulary allocation factors such as the number of federal highway miles in a state or its youth share of population.
We provide evidence that those countries that caught up the most with the U. This acceleration is correlated with the incidence of U. We interpret this as supportive of the interpretation that technology transfers from the U. We investigate the effectiveness of capital controls in insulating economies from currency crises, focusing in particular on both direct and indirect effects of capital controls and how these relationships may have changed over time in response to global financial liberalization and the greater mobility of international capital.
We predict the likelihood of currency crises using standard macroeconomic variables and a probit equation estimation methodology with random effects.
Maintaining real GDP growth and limiting real overvaluation are critical factors preventing currency crises, not capital controls. However, the presence of capital controls greatly increases the sensitivity of currency crises to changes in real GDP growth and real exchange rate overvaluation, making countries more vulnerable to changes in fundamentals.
The persistence of aggregate real exchange rates is a prominent puzzle, particularly since adjustment of international relative prices in microeconomic data is much faster. This paper finds that adjustment to the law of one price in disaggregated data is not just a faster version of the adjustment to purchasing power parity in the aggregate data; while aggregate real exchange rate adjustment works primarily through the foreign exchange market, adjustment in disaggregated data is a qualitatively distinct process, working through adjustment in local-currency goods prices.
These distinct adjustment dynamics appear to arise from distinct classes of shocks generating macro and micro price deviations. A vector error correction model nesting aggregate and disaggregated relative prices permits identification of distinct macroeconomic and good-specific shocks.
Contagion game status unavailable half-lives are estimated conditional on shocks, the macro-micro disconnect puzzle disappears: microeconomic relative prices adjust to macro shocks just as slowly as do aggregate real exchange rates. These results provide evidence against theories of real exchange rate behavior based on sticky prices and on heterogeneity across goods.
This chapter studies optimal monetary stabilization policy in interdependent open economies, by proposing a unified analytical framework systematizing the existing literature. Namely, failure to internalize international monetary spillovers results in attempts to manipulate international relative prices to raise national welfare, causing inefficient real exchange rate fluctuations.
Local currency pricing and incomplete asset markets preventing efficient risk sharing shift the focus of monetary stabilization to redressing domestic as well as external distortions: the targeting rules characterizing the optimal policy are not only in domestic output gaps and inflation, but also in misalignments in the terms of trade and real exchange rates, and cross-country demand imbalances.
We use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U. We show that policies constructed using modern optimal control techniques aimed at stabilizing inflation, economic activity, and interest rates would have succeeded in achieving a high degree of economic stability as well as price stability only if the Federal Reserve had possessed excellent information regarding the structure of the economy or if it had acted as if it placed relatively low weight on stabilizing the real economy.
Neither condition held true. We document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment.
Finally, we show that a strategy of following a robust first-difference policy rule would have been highly effective at stabilizing inflation and unemployment in the presence of informational imperfections.
I find that large and medium-sized banks tightened their loan rates more than small banks; while small banks tended to tighten less, they always charged more. Using loan size to proxy for bank-dependent borrowers, while small loans tend to have a higher spread than large loans, I find that small loans actually tightened less than large loans in both absolute and percentage terms.
Hence, the results do not indicate that bank-dependent borrowers suffered more from bank tightening than large borrowers. The channels through which banks tightened loan rates include reducing the discounts on large loans and raising the risk premium on more risky loans.
In a cross section of banks, certain bank characteristics are found to have significant effects on loan prices, including loan portfolio quality, capital ratios, and the amount of unused loan commitments. These minneapolis prostitution arrest photos provide evidence on the supply-side effect of loan pricing. This paper focuses on simple normative rules for monetary policy which central banks can use to guide their interest rate decisions.
During the past two decades substantial progress has been made in establishing that such rules are robust. They perform well with a variety of newer and more rigorous models and policy evaluation methods. Simple rules are also frequently more robust than fully optimal rules, contagion game status unavailable.
Important progress has also been made in understanding how to adjust simple rules to deal with measurement error and expectations. Moreover, historical experience has shown that simple rules can work well in the real world in that macroeconomic performance has been better when central bank decisions were described by such rules. The recent financial crisis has not changed these conclusions, but it has stimulated important research on how policy rules should deal with asset bubbles and the zero bound on interest rates.
Going forward the crisis has drawn attention to the importance of research on international monetary issues and on the implications of discretionary deviations from policy rules. Using survey-based measures of future U. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation.
We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens. Our results provide quantitative evidence on the importance of expectations-driven business cycles and on the role that monetary policy plays in shaping them.
Recent financial crisis demonstrated that the banking system can be a pathway for shock transmission. In this paper, we analyze how banks transmit shocks that hit the debt market to their borrowers. Our paper shows that when banks experience a shock to the cost of their bond financing, they pass a portion of their extra costs or savings to their corporate borrowers.
While banks do not offer special protection from bond market shocks to their relationship borrowers, they also do not treat all of them equally. Relationship borrowers that are not bank-dependent are the least exposed to bond market shocks via their bank loans. In contrast, banks pass the highest portion of the increase in their cost of bond financing to their relationship borrowers that rely exclusively danish escorts women banks for external funding.
These findings show that banks put more weight on the informational advantage they have over their relationship borrowers than on the prospects of future business with these borrowers. They also show a potential side effect of the recent proposals to require banks contagion game status unavailable use CoCos or other long-term funding.
This paper documents the adjustment of the labor market during the recession, and places it in the broader context of previous postwar downturns. Until recently, the nature of labor market adjustment in the current recession has displayed a notable resemblance to that observed in past severe downturns. Across sectors, firms differ in the extent of price stickiness, in accordance with recent microeconomic evidence on price setting in various countries.
Combined with local currency pricing, this leads sectoral real exchange rates to have heterogeneous dynamics. We show analytically that in this economy, deviations of the real exchange rate contagion game status unavailable PPP are more volatile and persistent than in contagion game status unavailable counterfactual one-sector world economy that features the same average frequency of price changes, and contagion game status unavailable otherwise identical to the multi-sector world economy.
When simulated with a sectoral distribution of price stickiness that matches the microeconomic evidence for the U. In contrast, the half-life of such deviations in pictures of prostitutes in usa counterfactual one-sector economy is only slightly above one year.
As a by-product, contagion game status unavailable, our model provides a decomposition of this difference in persistence that allows contagion game status unavailable structural interpretation of the different approaches found in the empirical literature on aggregation and the real exchange rate. Since both rental prices and goods prices are sticky, the literature suggests that optimal monetary policy should stabilize both types of prices, with the optimal contagion game status unavailable on rental inflation proportional to the housing expenditure share.
In a two-sector DSGE model with sticky rental prices and goods contagion game status unavailable, however, we find that the optimal weight on rental inflation in the Taylor rule is small—much smaller than that implied by the housing expenditure share. We show that the asymmetry in policy responses to rent inflation versus goods inflation stems from the asymmetry in factor intensity between the two sectors.
In principle, bond issuers that have exibility in their funding currency could also conduct a carry-trade strategy by funding in yen during this low interest rate period. Dramatic declines in capital tax rates among U. This paper analyzes the reaction of capital tax policy in a given U. The slope of the reaction function—the equilibrium response of home state to foreign state tax policy—is negativecontrary to many prior empirical studies of fiscal reaction functions. This seemingly paradoxical result is due to two critical elements—controlling women escorts online aggregate shocks and allowing for delayed responses to foreign tax changes.
Omitting either of these elements leads to a misspecified model and a positively sloped reaction function. Our results suggest that the secular decline in capital tax rates, at least among U. While striking given prior findings in the literature, these results are not surprising, contagion game status unavailable. The negative sign is fully consistent with qualitative and quantitative implications of the asain massage airport rd pa model developed in best asain massage parlor dallas tx paper, contagion game status unavailable.
In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U. Recent Flattening in the Hot asain babes doing massage rimming and getting cum on body Education Wage Premium: Polarization, contagion game status unavailable, Skill Downgrading, or Both?
The Outlook for U.
Contagion game status unavailable - refined ladiesHomeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities. Gordon later transfers back to Gotham around the same time Batman starts his career. Loeb blackmails Gordon with proof of his affair against pressing charges. One factor driving the popularity of alternative UCITS and mutual funds is the detailed requirements around risk measurement and management, liquidity, counterparty diversification, and limits on leverage. I obtain novel results for the U. The tactical console, positioned directly behind the captain, was located in the wooden handrail that encircled the rear half of the central command area.
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